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Showing posts with the label 2013 GDP and unemployment rate forecasts

Took a while, but we got there: 7.7%.

According to recent news reports, "Despite Hurricane Sandy and the nationwide shutdown of Hostess Brands Inc., with many of the Twinkie company's 18,500 workers laid off, the nation's payrolls expanded by 146,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Labor Department reported."

These numbers are in line with our October 31, 2012 forecast. As we said then "The consensus forecast is for a 7.8% to 8.0% unemployment rate. Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 7.7% (unemployment) rate." Unemployment was 7.9% for October.

On November 2, 2012, we noted that "As is often the case, the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) methodology is early. (On December 22, 2003 and February 6, 2006, we warned the S.E.C. and other regulators that statistical models created by the firm using the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Methodology signaled the probability of system-wide economic and market failure)."
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