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Probability of Fed Rate Hike is 90.53%

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Our model of Federal Reserve policy estimates the probability that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. Our July 3rd Summary shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate is 90.53%.

While our model needs to be adjusted, as noted below, we remain confident in these results.

The first forecast adjustment element are the previous hikes. Recall that in March, 2018, our model predicted a rate increase with a 92.3% probability. The rate increase following the June 12 – 13 FOMC meeting decreases the probability of subsequent rate increases, if only slightly (90.53% vs 92.30%). One precedent for the Fed raising rates in this manner came in 1994, during the Clinton Administration, when the Fed raised rates from February to May at a 25 basis point pace. Interest rates increased from 3.25% to 4.25% in 4 months (FED, 2018).

Each successive rate increase adds less to policy impact. Given that the Fed has  raised interest rates two times so far in …

Probability of a Fed Rate Hike in March, 2018 is 92.3% by Hongcheng Chen, Creative Investment Research

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New Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell (above) showed up at the Rayburn House Office Building on February 27 to deliver his first semiannual testimony before the Committee on Financial Services. Before he dug into the details of monetary policy, Powell described the outlook for the U.S. economy as bright androbust: “The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace over the second half of 2017 and into this year.” setting an optimistic tone for his interpretation of the current economy and prospects for the future. He emphasized that U.S. economy, from his perspective, is getting better, stating that, “my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December.” Apparently, the new Chairman of the Fed has full confidence in this country’s economy despite the Dow Jones’s plunge of more than 600 points in the same month.
EconomicOutlook
Here are some highlights from Powell’s testimony.
Labormarket:job growth since last year has been solid enough to lower the unemployment rate to 4.1%;…

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