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Showing posts with the label Federal Reserve

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report Hearing

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Last week, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell appeared before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services to present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Chairman Powell opened his remarks by stating that “the economy performed reasonably well over the first half of 2019 and the current expansion is now in its 11th year.” Inflation has run below the FOMC 2% objective, trade tensions and concerns about global growth have weighed on economic activity."
The Current Economic Situation
Labor Market: job gains remain healthy, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% in June. Employers are increasingly willing to hire and train workers with fewer skills.Unemployment for African Americans and Hispanics remain well above the rates of whites and Asians. Urban employment rates are higher than those in rural communities. Labour force participation by those in their prime working years is lower in the US than in comparable nations.
GDP: GDP increased to last…

Probability of Fed Rate Hike is 90.53%

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Our model of Federal Reserve policy estimates the probability that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. Our July 3rd Summary shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate is 90.53%.

While our model needs to be adjusted, as noted below, we remain confident in these results.

The first forecast adjustment element are the previous hikes. Recall that in March, 2018, our model predicted a rate increase with a 92.3% probability. The rate increase following the June 12 – 13 FOMC meeting decreases the probability of subsequent rate increases, if only slightly (90.53% vs 92.30%). One precedent for the Fed raising rates in this manner came in 1994, during the Clinton Administration, when the Fed raised rates from February to May at a 25 basis point pace. Interest rates increased from 3.25% to 4.25% in 4 months (FED, 2018).

Each successive rate increase adds less to policy impact. Given that the Fed has  raised interest rates two times so far in …

Trump's Tariffs on China will Mainly Hurt the Fed by Hongcheng Chen, Creative Investment Research

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The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement on March 21, indicated that the Committee voted for a quarter-point increase in federal fund rate. (See: http://twisri.blogspot.com/2018/03/probability-of-fed-rate-hike-in-march.html)

The Fedseemedtosignal,bythisratehike,that a more robust economicoutlook, strengthened, at least in part,duetofiscalpolicy (tax bill), provides asolidbase on which totighten (increase interest rates) monetarypolicymoreaggressivelyinthefuture. The FOMC

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