Posts

Showing posts with the label Federal Reserve Board

Why the #FED doesn’t care about Black unemployment

Image
Why the #FED doesn’t care about Black unemployment (Listen at 49:42)

http://weaa.org/post/ellisonreport-1222-interestrates-are-bad-black-people-gop-primary-colors

US GDP Forecast

Image
The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the second estimate of First Quarter 2015 US GDP on Friday at 8:30 am. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Most forecasters are predicting GDP will decline by 1.0% from the earlier quarter (4th Quarter, 2014.)

Our 2015 Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for GDP suggests there will be no change, in other words, we will have a first quarter 2015 GDP estimate that reflects virtually no change, or negative 0.5%." 

The US economy is strong and getting stronger. The only thing that can damage it are policy mistakes (like raising interest rates too soon) by officials at the Federal Reserve, and this is reason to be concerned. 

Fed economic policymakers, especially the group at left:MODERATOR: BETTY LIU ANCHOR, “IN THE LOOP WITH BETTY LIU,” BLOOMBERG TELEVISION, ALAN GREENSPAN PRESIDENT, GREENSPAN ASSOCIATES; FORMER CHAIRMAN, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RICHARD W. FISHER FORMER…

Bernanke on the Hill

Image
Chairman of the Fed Benjamin Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. In his prepared remarks he hewed closely to his July 17th testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
A surprising number of questions focused on the LIBOR scandal. One question in particular seemed to go to the heart of the matter. A Committee member read a transcript of a conversation between a Barclay's trader and a staff member at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. The transcript seemed to show the trader acknowledging his complicity in the commission of fraud. The Congressman then read the definition of fraud to the Chairman. This matched what the transcript revealed.

The Committee member then asked the Chairman if he thought this combination was enough to justify a charge of fraud against Barclays. The Chairman was, predictably, reluctant to agree.

Fiscal cliffs, twists and sequesters are irrelevant in the face of this type of clearly defined unethical behavior. 

It is this typ…

Federal Reserve Board QE2 - $600 billion, $75 billion at a time...

According to the Fed, "To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."$600 billion is $100 billion larger than anticipated and $75 billion per month seems reasonable. This is an appropriate response and stands every chance of being effective, especially since economic activity has been…

Creative Investment Research, Inc. testifies at the Joint Public Hearing on CRA

Sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision (The Agencies), the Joint Public Hearing on the Community Reinvestment Act Regulation was held in Arlington Virginia on July 19, 2010. We provided testimony for the hearings.

Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1977 “to encourage depository institutions to help meet the credit needs of the communities in which they operate, including low and moderate income neighborhoods, consistent with safe and sound operations.”

Our testimony follows a series of warnings we have issued since 1998:

- In an October 1998 brief filed with the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, we objected to the Citigroup/Travelers merger. We cited evidence that growing financial market malfeasance greatly exacerbated risks in financial markets, reducing the safety and soundness of large …

Hearing on the link between Fed Policy and Bank Supervision (Frank Hung, Intern)

We attended the hearing held by House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday March 17, 2010. Among the speakers:

The Honorable Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

The Honorable Paul Volcker, Chairman of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Their testimony focused on interest rates and government guarantees, such as those granted Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. One Congressman asked if holding rates too low for too long causes inflation? Bernanke indicated he is watching economic trends closely will move rates up or down in order to avoid future economic problems. He stated that arbitrage opportunities still happened and that, based on current reports and research, demand is still lower than the full employment level. He noted that low interest rates can stimulate consumer expenditures and alleviate the unemployment problem.

He also stated that the Fed cooperates with other regulatory agencies in superv…

Bernanke's History

Looks like they got that one wrong.

On January 17, 2008, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Mr. Bernanke, testified that "A recession is probably not on the horizon, but quick passage of an economic-stimulus package plus aggressive action by the Federal Reserve are the appropriate prescription for the ailing economy.."

What we got wrong.

We note that on June 18, 1998, in a letter to Betsy White, Senior Vice President at the NY Fed, we said:

"Finally, it is our continuing belief that the Federal Reserve Board should be designated a 'Superregulator,' with broad responsibility for overseeing the activities of banks, thrifts, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual fund companies, brokerage firms and investment banks. We note our belief that financial institution convergence, driven by recent advancements in financial and computer technology, requires the creation of such a 'Super-regulator.' "

We, and others, no longer believe the Federal Reserv…

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee (Emerson Bluhm)

In his semi annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke about the current troubles in the economy, the future outlook and the FED’s plans to help the economy return to health. With an average of 94,000 jobs lost per month over the last six months, unemployment at 5.5%, home prices falling, rising inflation, soaring commodity prices and trouble at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Bernanke was less than optimistic about the economy over the next year, forecasting extremely slow growth. While he claimed that the U.S. is technically not in a recession by a textbook definition, he acknowledged the hardships many Americans are facing with extremely low consumer confidence, declining wealth, and rising food and energy costs.

According to the Chairman, the housing crisis and rising commodities prices are at the center of the current economic problems. Bernanke told the committee that he believes the Treasury Department’s plan to ba…

Freddie and Fannie: What should be done now

Our recommendations for dealing with the housing GSEs are as follows:

1. Freddie Mac should be closed. Having a second housing GSE was supposed to provide competition and serve as a check on the first housing GSE, Fannie Mae. Clearly, this did not work. No need to continue, so:
2. Merge Freddie and Fannie. Instead of two failing agencies, we now have one. Allows for a concentration of focus, effort. Stabilize the resulting institution.
3. After one year, move Fannie back into HUD. Fannie Mae was separated from HUD in 1968. Time to reverse this. Moving Fannie into HUD extends the full faith and credit guarantee umbrella.

Time to revise the housing GSE experiment.

"Treasury Dept. Plan Would Give Fed Wide New Power"

According to the New York Times, a Treasury Department plan released (over a weekend to the press and selected insiders only) would give substantial new power to the Federal Reserve Board. "The Treasury plan would let Fed officials examine the practices and even the internal bookkeeping of brokerage firms, hedge funds, commodity-trading exchanges and any other institution that might pose a risk to the overall financial system." This would be a significant expansion of the central bank’s regulatory mission.

We are not, at this point, opposed to this effort. We noted, in an October 2, 1998 filing with the DC Circuit of the US Court of Appeals (Case Number 98-1459), our belief that the Fed should be designated a "Super-regulator, with broad responsibility for overseeing the activities of banks, thrifts, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, brokerage firms and investment banks.

We believe social investors need to review the plan carefully. The Times stated:

&quo…

A Socially Responsible Economic Stimulus Plan

We attended House Budget Committee hearings today.

As the New York Times noted, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Mr. Bernanke, testified that "A recession is probably not on the horizon, but quick passage of an economic-stimulus package plus aggressive action by the Federal Reserve are the appropriate prescription for the ailing economy.."

Let's hope he is right on the first count. As Fed Chair, he is pledged to political neutrality, so he cannot be specific on the second. We, of course, have no such limitation. Our suggestions follow.

Any economic-stimulus package should target low to moderate income consumers. We suggest implementing a $30 billion dollar increase in food stamp benefits. Given new distribution technology (EBT), this part of the stimulus plan would hit the economy first and quickly and, as an added benefit, would go a long way toward beginning to even the income distribution in the country. Benefits should be expanded to include more and newer con…

"Framework" to Help Prevent Foreclosures

We have been attempting to review the Bush Administration's plan to help stop foreclosures. We have not been able to find coherent, consistent documentation, thus we believe there is no plan. There is, however, a public relations effort designed to feign concern.

According to the Jacksonville Business Journal,

"Nationwide, nearly 1.1 million homes entered the foreclosure process so far this year, up 93 percent from the 559,750 foreclosures filed during the same period last year. About 526,936, or more than six out of every 1,000 households in the United States, were repossessed by banks or lenders during the first 11 months of the year, up 41 percent from the same time last year."

HUD notes that the FHA Secure Plan " has helped 33,000 homeowners prevent foreclosure in three months; More than 50,000 to be helped by end of year. " Thus 33,0000/1,100,000 or three percent of homeowners in foreclosure have been helped. That is three out of one hundred. Even under the …