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Showing posts with the label Forecast

Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model Predicts Unemployment will be 7.7%

The U.S.Employment Situation report will be released on Friday at 8:30 am. According to the Department of Labor, "Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force." The consensus forecast is for a 7.8% to 8.0% unemployment rate. Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 7.7% rate.

As noted in the Washington Post, "Hurricane Sandy could complicate Friday’s release of the October U.S. jobs report, the final snapshot of employment before the presidential election. Labor Department officials are still hopeful that they can release the report as scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Friday. But they acknowledged Monday that the storm could cause a delay." While the storm may impact the report release date, it will have no impact on the report itself. The storm will influence the November jobs figures, to be released on December 7th.

Recent Forecast Track Record

Our last fo…

Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) models predict GDP will be 2.1%.

According to the Washington Post, "forecasters estimate that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter, from July through September..GDP is the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, aiming to capture the value of goods and services produced in the United States during a given time period." GDP will be released on Friday at 8:30am.

Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) models predict GDP will be 2.1%. Consumer spending will drive most of the growth. Housing has recovered, adding additional strength to the economy. Government spending and business investment will lag, but will be higher than expected.

Another forecast confirmed

The Labor Department today announced..that "unemployment dropped to 9.4 percent—its lowest number since mid-2009—and employers added 103,000 non-farm jobs in December." We agree with Secretary of Labor Hilda L. Solis: “One thing is for certain: (Obama Administration) investments have reversed the trend of catastrophic job losses and put this country on the road to recovery.”
These unemployment numbers confirm our September 2, 2010 Fully Adjusted Return (tm) forecast: "unemployment will trend downward as payrolls and the economy gain strength."
Even with the outstanding unemployment numbers, as we noted in our December 31, 2010 Fully Adjusted Return (tm) Forecast, "most stock market forecasters expect equity markets to do well in 2011. While we expect certain sectors, like technology and energy, to do better than others, we are not as optimistic as most."