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Showing posts with the label Trump

Too late for bitcoin?

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On April 17, 2017, we made the following suggestion: "Get some Bitcoins. Now! Why? Our economic forecasting models (the same ones that predicted Trump's win, btw) show an extended period of instability coming, and soon. Should things really go south, bitcoin will be one of the few transaction tools you can depend on. (You can thank me later..just don't say we didn't warn you and give you a way out that we both could benefit from...but I digress...) If you don't know what Bitcoin is, this may help: 'Bitcoin is a new kind of money that can be sent from one person to another without the need for a trusted third party such as a bank or other financial institution; it is the first global, decentralized currency. One of the most important elements of Bitcoin is the blockchain, which tracks who owns what, similar to how a bank tracks assets. What sets the Bitcoin blockchain apart from a bank's ledger is that it is distributed, meaning anyone can view it. Since B…

Business under Trump

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We recently gave a talk to the Greater Houston Black Chamber (GHBC), at their monthly Business Luncheon “2nd Tuesday with the Chamber” on for February 14, 2017. The link at left is to a video of the discussion. I described the current economic environment for black businesses in Houston and provided a forecast for 2017. 

"Founded in 1935 as the city’s first African -American civic organization, the GHBC has evolved into an active participant in the City of Houston’s socioeconomic process. The organization is a 501(c) (6), not-for-profit, private, member-driven organization that serves the Greater Houston Area.  The GHBC is dedicated to supporting African-American small businesses in the areas of education, certification and accessing contracting opportunities and capital."

See: https://youtu.be/toYeng7PlRQ

Brexit: Now What?

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Now that a little time has passed,  we can review the Brexit vote with more perspective and forecast its impact on the US financial system more objectively. To do so, we believe it important to consider the following: Brexit's main short term impact will be to restrict the ability of the Fed to respond to domestic economic and financial issues, already evident in their decision to keep rates low. Further, the Fed may have to create a special QE Brexit liquidity facility to support American firms in the UK who now need to move operations either back to the US or to the Continent. Finally, having announced at the House Financial Services Committee Monetary Policy Hearing this week a November conference to examine black unemployment, we predict this effort will be placed on hold as the Fed struggles to deal with the uncertainty that follows the Brexit vote. Uncertainty is, of course, the greatest legacy of Brexit. Consider this: each and every contract signed in the UK when the UK was p…

Why Trump Will Win

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Our initial 2016 Election Fully Adjusted Return Forecast indicates that Donald J. Trump will win the election for the Presidency of the United States. This follows from one  sufficient and one necessary condition.   The sufficient condition: seventeen (17) Republican states have enacted laws restricting access to the voting booth, restrictions so onerous as to defy both common sense and the spirit of democratic governance. These laws guarantee that the people who would vote against Mr. Trump will be blocked from participating in the election. They simply will not be able to vote. For example, to vote in the State of Texas, a gun permit suffices. A college ID does not. So it is in 17 of 50 US States.  The movement to block access to voting has been a long term effort, a reaction to the election of the first African American president, and it is now too late to do anything about this. 
Rather than effectively fighting voter disenfranchisement, Democrats were convinced that this was a Black…