Showing posts with the label interest rates

Probability of Fed Rate Hike is 90.53% by Rongbin Ye, Impact Investing Analyst

Our model of Federal Reserve policy estimates the probability that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. Our July 3rd Summary shows that the probability of the US Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate is 90.53%.

While our model needs to be adjusted, as noted below, we remain confident in these results.

The first forecast adjustment element are the previous hikes. Recall that in March, 2018, our model predicted a rate increase with a 92.3% probability. The rate increase following the June 12 – 13 FOMC meeting decreases the probability of subsequent rate increases, if only slightly (90.53% vs 92.30%). One precedent for the Fed raising rates in this manner came in 1994, during the Clinton Administration, when the Fed raised rates from February to May at a 25 basis point pace. Interest rates increased from 3.25% to 4.25% in 4 months (FED, 2018).

Each successive rate increase adds less to policy impact. Given that the Fed has  raised interest rates two times so far in …

Yellen at the Senate Banking Committee by Kari Nelson, Impact Investing Intern, University of Virginia

On July 13, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs met in open session with the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Honorable Janet L. Yellen, for“The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” I attended this hearing and this blog post shares my reaction as well as some analysis.
Despite the fact that the hearing was supposed to be about monetary policy, the Senators mostly questioned Yellen about regulatory issues. Republicans have been pushing for widespread rollbacks of Dodd-Frank financial regulations, so this is not surprising. This regulatory theme was apparent from the beginning, with Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), the Chairman of the Committee, asking Yellen to affirm that she believes Congress needs to act on some areas of financial reform and that the Fed would work to make suggestions to the Committee, both of which Yellen readily agreed to. The ranking Democrat, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), quickly responded by pushing …

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