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Showing posts with the label unemployment

HR 3441, the Save Local Business Act and Black Unemployment

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Eight years after the Great Recession, many in the country still struggle economically. While we continue to look forward positively with respect to the future, we need economic policy initiatives that promote growth and fuel our entrepreneurial spirit. Technology has allowed many more people to work for themselves and build economic security. This is even truer for the African American community, which has traditionally been locked out of opportunities in corporate America, but for whom, as the chart below shows, is starting to see some modest improvement. Economic independence is one key to our future. There are many pathways to achieving the American dream. Some of these pathways lead to entrepreneurship and to the use of empowering and flexible business models, such as franchising and the shared economy.
Recent economic policy initiatives may serve to block the door to opportunity. Specifically, federal and state efforts to expand the definition of a “joint employer” beyond the …

Declining Black/White unemployment differential

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Our Fully Adjusted Return (tm) model predicted Black Unemployment would fall from 9.5% in June to 9.1% in July. 
The forecast was confirmed this morning by the US Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
The difference between Black and White unemployment now stands at 4.5%. We note this is the second lowest differential of the Obama Presidency, surpassed only by a 4.0% differential in February, 2008. Our Fully Adjusted Return model shows that the difference is poised, assuming the Fed does not raise rates, to fall further. See: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm

Fully Adjusted Return Forecast Early Yet Again...

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On April 2, 2015, we issued an unemployment rate forecast that stated, in part:

"Our Fully Adjusted Return® Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 5.4% rate for March. Unemployment has been trending down since the beginning of 2009. The long term trend is declining, as the chart below shows. We see no reason for this to change. The only risk is that we may be a little early."

As one outlet noted, "US employers added jobs at a solid pace in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent, a seven-year low." Today's rate release confirms our 4/2/15 forecast.

The chart above shows the overall Unemployment Rate (Blue), the rate for African Americans (Brown) and the difference between the two. (Gray line, scale at right.) We think the level and the volatility of this difference is a key indicator of the overall social and economic health of the country.



GDP

On May 28th, we issued a Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for GDP that, similarly, was a li…

Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model Predicts Unemployment will be 5.4%

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The U.S.Employment Situation report will be released on Friday at 8:30 am. According to the Department of Labor, "Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force." Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 5.4% rate for March.

Unemployment has been trending down since the beginning of 2009. The long term trend is declining, as the chart below shows. We see no reason for this to change. The only risk is that we may be a little early.

On November 2, 2012, we noted that "As is often the case, the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) methodology is early. (On December 22, 2003 and February 6, 2006, we warned the S.E.C. and other regulators that statistical models created by the firm using the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Methodology signaled the probability of system-wide economic and market failure)."

Took a while, but we got there: 7.7%.

According to recent news reports, "Despite Hurricane Sandy and the nationwide shutdown of Hostess Brands Inc., with many of the Twinkie company's 18,500 workers laid off, the nation's payrolls expanded by 146,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Labor Department reported."

These numbers are in line with our October 31, 2012 forecast. As we said then "The consensus forecast is for a 7.8% to 8.0% unemployment rate. Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 7.7% (unemployment) rate." Unemployment was 7.9% for October.

On November 2, 2012, we noted that "As is often the case, the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) methodology is early. (On December 22, 2003 and February 6, 2006, we warned the S.E.C. and other regulators that statistical models created by the firm using the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Methodology signaled the probability of system-wide economic and market failure)."
W…

Unemployment at 7.9%. We'll stand by our number..

According to the Washington Post,

"Businesses picked up their pace of hiring in October and the unemployment rate rose as more people started looking for work, according to new government data that offer a glimmer of optimism for the long-ailing job market on the eve of the presidential election.

Employers reported adding 171,000 jobs in October, beating both analysts’ expectations (125,000 jobs added) and September’s job creation (a revised 148,000). The unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent, up from 7.8 percent, but the reason behind the uptick also points to an improved job market. Some 578,000 more Americans counted themselves as part of the labor force, and only 410,000 more people reported having a job. In one particularly welcome sign, the proportion of the population reporting that they had a job rose one-tenth of a percent to 58.8 percent."

We forecast a 7.7% rate. We'll stand by our number. As is often the case, the Fully Adjusted Return (TM) methodology is ear…

Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model Predicts Unemployment will be 7.7%

The U.S.Employment Situation report will be released on Friday at 8:30 am. According to the Department of Labor, "Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force." The consensus forecast is for a 7.8% to 8.0% unemployment rate. Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 7.7% rate.

As noted in the Washington Post, "Hurricane Sandy could complicate Friday’s release of the October U.S. jobs report, the final snapshot of employment before the presidential election. Labor Department officials are still hopeful that they can release the report as scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Friday. But they acknowledged Monday that the storm could cause a delay." While the storm may impact the report release date, it will have no impact on the report itself. The storm will influence the November jobs figures, to be released on December 7th.

Recent Forecast Track Record

Our last fo…

Unemployment in Black and White

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We created the chart at left showing black versus white unemployment in August, 2011. Black unemployment was reported at 16.7%, higher than the 16.2% rate reported in August 2010. Black unemployment was 15.5% in July, 2011. White unemployment fell to 8% in August from 8.1% in July, 2011. Further, white unemployment was 8.7% in August, 2010.
I think this puts the recession into clear perspective. While some (the Tea Party in particular) have done a lot of whining, they are in no way, shape or form bearing the brunt of this recession.

Another forecast confirmed

The Labor Department today announced..that "unemployment dropped to 9.4 percent—its lowest number since mid-2009—and employers added 103,000 non-farm jobs in December." We agree with Secretary of Labor Hilda L. Solis: “One thing is for certain: (Obama Administration) investments have reversed the trend of catastrophic job losses and put this country on the road to recovery.”
These unemployment numbers confirm our September 2, 2010 Fully Adjusted Return (tm) forecast: "unemployment will trend downward as payrolls and the economy gain strength."
Even with the outstanding unemployment numbers, as we noted in our December 31, 2010 Fully Adjusted Return (tm) Forecast, "most stock market forecasters expect equity markets to do well in 2011. While we expect certain sectors, like technology and energy, to do better than others, we are not as optimistic as most."