The unemployment report for March 2025, to be released on Friday at 8:30 am, is anticipated to reflect a significant spike in Black unemployment, building upon trends identified earlier this year. Our previous forecast, which initially expected unemployment spikes earlier in the year, was ahead of schedule, as employment losses among Black workers in government and public-sector jobs took slightly longer to materialize. According to our latest forecast for February 2025, out of a civilian noninstitutional Black population of approximately 35.6 million, about 22.1 million were participating in the labor force. At that point, around 20.7 million Black individuals were employed, resulting in an employment-population ratio of 58.1% and implying approximately 1.4 million unemployed Black workers. Given the significant February job cuts predominantly in the government sector, as highlighted by the Black Enterprise article citing our report , it is expected that these cuts will become fu...
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February 2025 increased by 0.3% from the previous month, with the core PCE index—which excludes food and energy—rising by 0.4%. These figures suggest an uptick in inflation, which has implications for Black and minority-owned businesses. Impact on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses: 1. Increased Operational Costs: A 0.4% rise in the core PCE index indicates that the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy, have edged higher. For minority-owned businesses, especially those operating with limited financial buffers, this can lead to increased costs for supplies, utilities, and other essential services, potentially squeezing profit margins. 2. Consumer Spending Behavior: While the overall PCE increase was 0.3%, the core inflation rate suggests that consumers might experience higher prices in various sectors. This will lead to more cautious spending behaviors, impacting revenues for businesses that rely...