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Black Unemployment Expected to Spike: March 2025 Data in Focus.

The unemployment report for March 2025, to be released on Friday at 8:30 am, is anticipated to reflect a significant spike in Black unemployment, building upon trends identified earlier this year. Our previous forecast, which initially expected unemployment spikes earlier in the year, was ahead of schedule, as employment losses among Black workers in government and public-sector jobs took slightly longer to materialize. According to our latest forecast for February 2025, out of a civilian noninstitutional Black population of approximately 35.6 million, about 22.1 million were participating in the labor force. At that point, around 20.7 million Black individuals were employed, resulting in an employment-population ratio of 58.1% and implying approximately 1.4 million unemployed Black workers. Given the significant February job cuts predominantly in the government sector, as  highlighted by the Black Enterprise article citing our report , it is expected that these cuts will become fu...
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Impact of February 2025 PCE Inflation on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

  The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February 2025 increased by 0.3% from the previous month, with the core PCE index—which excludes food and energy—rising by 0.4%.  These figures suggest an uptick in inflation, which has implications for Black and minority-owned businesses. Impact on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses: 1. Increased Operational Costs: A 0.4% rise in the core PCE index indicates that the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy, have edged higher. For minority-owned businesses, especially those operating with limited financial buffers, this can lead to increased costs for supplies, utilities, and other essential services, potentially squeezing profit margins. 2. Consumer Spending Behavior: While the overall PCE increase was 0.3%, the core inflation rate suggests that consumers might experience higher prices in various sectors. This will lead to more cautious spending behaviors, impacting revenues for businesses that rely...

Future Of CDFI Fund And MBDA, Uncertain With Their Planned Ouster. Black Enterprise Magazine, Jeffrey McKinney, March 21, 2025

Future Of CDFI Fund And MBDA, Uncertain With Their Planned Ouster: Axing the federal agencies could lessen Black businesses' ability to access capital and grow revenues. The Community Development Financial Institutions Fund (CDFI Fund) has invested over $8 billion through various monetary award programs, helping underserved people and communities. The Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) helped wrap up $3.8 billion in contracts for minority businesses in 2023. That drive is significant as it can help those firms, including Black-owned businesses, to scale up and potentially fuel revenue growth. However, the downside now is the CDFI Fund and MBDA — deep-rooted and bipartisan supporters of Black entrepreneurs and individuals, among others — are being cut by President Donald Trump. https://www.blackenterprise.com/future-cdfi-fund-mbda-uncertain-ouster/

The Stock Market's Downward Spiral: A Caution for Investors in Trump's America

It’s time for investors to step back and take a hard look at where the U.S. economy is heading—and the picture is not pretty. In fact, it’s downright terrifying. Donald Trump’s return to the political stage has not only rattled the global order but pushed the U.S. economy to the edge of a fiscal cliff. With a toxic cocktail of economic incoherence, erratic policy, and raw political chaos, the U.S. stock market has become a playground for what I call financial arsonists—the so-called "chaos monkeys" who thrive in the wreckage of responsible governance. Let me be blunt: U.S. stocks are a no-go zone. Radicalism Meets Recklessness Trump is no longer just flirting with radical economic policy—he’s embracing it with both hands, slamming the accelerator on trade wars, dismantling regulatory frameworks, and attacking the institutions that once underpinned American prosperity. He has gutted traditional alliances and dismantled the foundational tenets of post-World War II economic stab...

The Economic Case Against Reducing Support for Minority-Owned Businesses

Recent executive orders aimed at downsizing essential government agencies such as the Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) and Community Development Financial Institutions Fund (CDFI Fund) present serious risks to non-minority-owned businesses, local economies, and national economic stability. We have completed a comprehensive economic analysis, summarized below and  urgently needed to highlight the full scope of these risks. Economic Risks to Minority-Owned Businesses Minority-owned businesses significantly contribute to the national economy by creating jobs, fostering innovation, and promoting community development. Reducing or eliminating support from critical agencies like MBDA and the CDFI Fund directly threatens these businesses, leading to: Reduced Access to Capital: Funding shortages severely limit growth and sustainability. (Estimated Loss: $450 million) Loss of Technical Assistance: Business development support, including strategic guidance and capacity building, ...

Analysis of February 2025 Producer Price Index: Impact on Minority-Owned Businesses

In February 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand remained unchanged (seasonally adjusted), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While stable overall, the underlying data reveals critical developments in specific sectors significantly affecting Black and minority-owned businesses. Sector-Specific Impacts on Minority Businesses Retail and Wholesale (Black and Hispanic-Owned Businesses) Key Insight: Prices for final demand services fell 0.2% in February, driven by decreased margins in retail and wholesale trade—specifically machinery and vehicle wholesaling (-1.4%) and food and alcohol retailing. Impact: Black and Hispanic-owned businesses in auto retail, apparel, and food retailing face tighter profit margins. Lower wholesale margins can squeeze profitability, particularly for small businesses operating with already narrow margins. Strategy: Businesses should optimize inventory and seek direct relationships with suppliers to minimize intermediary costs and m...

February 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Impact on Minority-Owned Businesses

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in February 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.5% increase in January. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.8% before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in February and is up 3.1% year-over-year. Inflationary pressures continue at a higher than 2% target level rate. Cost increases in shelter, transportation, and services continue to affect minority-owned businesses across various industries. Industry Analysis: 1. Retail & Consumer Goods (Black and Hispanic-Owned) Impact: Food at home prices were unchanged, but food away from home rose 0.4%, indicating ongoing cost pressures for restaurants and hospitality. Apparel rose by 0.6%, potentially affecting profitability positively for minority-owned retail businesses specializing in clothing and personal accessories. Strategic Advice: Retailers must balance pricing strategies carefully, considerin...